The Portland Trail Blazers pulled off a rare road win on Monday night, outlasting the Milwaukee Bucks 115-103 at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin — a venue where the Bucks had dominated them for years. The game, played at 8:00 PM Eastern Time on November 24, 2025, wasn’t just a win for Portland. It was a statement. With Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined by a low-grade left groin strain and key contributors like Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday out for Portland, no one expected the Blazers to win — let alone by 12 points. But they did. And they did it while the Bucks, once the Eastern Conference’s darlings, fell to 8-11 on the season and extended their losing streak to five games — all while failing to cover a 2.5-point spread they were heavily favored to win.
How Portland Won Against the Odds
The Blazers didn’t win because they were healthier. They won because they played smarter. After trailing 33-32 after the first quarter, Portland outscored Milwaukee 30-21 in the third — a period where the Bucks’ offense completely collapsed. Ryan Rollins, playing 34 minutes, dropped 24 points, dished out seven assists, and added two blocks — the kind of all-around performance that’s rare for a guard on a team missing its starting point guard. Meanwhile, Grant came off the bench in the previous game and scored 21 efficient points against Oklahoma City, and carried that momentum into this one with a steady 18-point, 7-rebound night.
Here’s the thing: Milwaukee didn’t shoot poorly. They made 46% of their field goals. But they turned the ball over 17 times — 10 in the second half. And when you’re missing your two-time MVP, those mistakes become fatal. The Bucks’ offense, which averaged 117.3 points per game this season, looked disjointed without Antetokounmpo’s gravity. They scored just 21 points in the third quarter — their lowest of the game — and never recovered.
The Injury Crisis That Changed Everything
Both teams were battered, but Milwaukee’s losses hurt more. Giannis Antetokounmpo hadn’t played since November 18, and his absence wasn’t just statistical — it was psychological. The Bucks had won 10 of their last 11 home games against Portland by covering the spread. But without Giannis, they lost their identity. Power forward Taurean Prince was already out after surgery. Guard Cole Anthony, who had eight assists in his last game, looked lost trying to carry the offense.
Portland wasn’t much better off. Henderson’s hamstring injury — expected to keep him out 2-4 weeks — and Holiday’s multi-week absence meant the Blazers were starting a rookie and a 34-year-old veteran at point guard. Yet they didn’t panic. Coach Chauncey Billups leaned on defense, forcing 17 turnovers and holding Milwaukee to 41% shooting in the second half. They didn’t need stars. They needed grit. And they got it.
Why the Betting Lines Were Wrong
The betting market got this one wrong — badly. The Bucks were -2.5 favorites with a 230.5-point total. Sixty percent of the money came in on Milwaukee. But here’s what oddsmakers ignored: the Bucks were 0-5 ATS in their last five games. They were 3-3 ATS when favored by 2.5 or more this season. And in their last 11 home games against Portland, they’d covered the spread in 10 — but those were all with Giannis on the floor. Without him? The trend evaporated.
Even Fox Sports’ pre-game prediction — a 121-120 Blazers win — was closer than the actual result. The total, 230.5, was barely touched. The final score of 218 was the lowest-scoring Bucks home game since October. And it wasn’t because Portland’s offense was elite. It was because Milwaukee’s collapsed. The Bucks’ offense, which had gone over the total in 8 of their last 11 home games, went under here. That’s not a fluke. That’s a system breaking down.
What This Means for the Rest of the Season
Portland’s win improves them to 9-10, keeping them alive in the Western Conference playoff race. They’re now 2-0 against the spread in their last two meetings with Milwaukee — a team they’ve historically struggled to beat. For the Bucks? This loss is a red flag. They’re now 7-10-0 against the spread on the season. Their defense has been porous. Their offense, without Giannis, looks like a car with no engine. And with the All-Star break approaching, they have no time to fix it.
The bigger question: Is this a sign of a team in decline, or just a temporary stumble? The Bucks still have the best record in the East from last season. But losing five straight — all by double digits — while missing their best player? That’s not bad luck. That’s a team losing its way.
Historical Context: Why This Game Was So Unusual
Since 2008, the Bucks have held a 20-16 edge in home games against the Blazers. The average combined score in those matchups? 212.9 points. This game? 218. That’s not a shocker. What’s shocking is that Portland won by 12 — something that hadn’t happened in Milwaukee since 2016. And the fact that the Blazers won without their top two guards? That’s never happened in the last 15 years of this rivalry.
Even more telling: in the last eight games between these teams in Milwaukee, the first quarter went over 56.5 points in seven of them. Monday’s first quarter? 59 total points. So the trend held — but the outcome didn’t. That’s the kind of disconnect that makes basketball so unpredictable.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo impact the Bucks’ performance?
Without Giannis, the Bucks lost their offensive engine and defensive anchor. They averaged 117.3 points per game this season, but in this game, they scored just 103 — their lowest output since early November. Their field goal percentage dropped from 49% with Giannis to 43% without him. More importantly, they turned the ball over 17 times, nearly double their average in games he plays. The Bucks are 3-1 ATS when Giannis plays and 0-5 ATS when he doesn’t.
Why did the Trail Blazers win despite missing Scoot Henderson and Jrue Holiday?
Portland’s win was a team effort fueled by defense and ball movement. Ryan Rollins stepped up with 24 points and seven assists, while Grant provided efficient scoring off the bench. Without their star guards, the Blazers focused on spacing, limiting Milwaukee’s transition game, and forcing 17 turnovers. Their win rate as underdogs this season is 40%, but they’re 4-1 in their last five games as underdogs — suggesting they thrive under pressure.
What does this loss mean for the Bucks’ playoff chances?
Milwaukee is now 8-11 and sitting seventh in the East — barely above the play-in threshold. With five straight losses and no clear timeline for Giannis’ return, their playoff seeding is at risk. They’re 0-5 ATS in their last five games, and their offensive rating has dropped 12 points without Giannis. If they can’t turn things around before December, they could miss the top six entirely — and face a tougher first-round matchup.
Is this a sign the Trail Blazers are turning their season around?
It’s too early to call it a turnaround, but this win shows promise. Portland has now won two straight despite major injuries, and their defense has improved from 122.5 points allowed per game to just 107.5 in their last three. They’re 2-0 ATS against Milwaukee this season and have shown resilience. If Rollins and Grant continue this level of play, they could sneak into the play-in tournament — even without Henderson or Holiday.
What’s the historical trend between these two teams in Milwaukee?
Since 2008, the Bucks have won 20 of 36 meetings at Fiserv Forum, with home teams averaging 108.1 points and away teams 104.8. Milwaukee covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against Portland — but every single one featured Giannis. Without him, the trend collapsed. This was the first time since 2016 that Portland won by more than 10 points in Milwaukee, and only the third time since 2010 they’ve won there without a 20-point scorer.
What should fans watch for in the next matchup?
If Giannis returns before the next meeting — scheduled for January 12 in Portland — expect a completely different game. But if he’s still out, Portland’s defense will be key. The Blazers have held opponents under 110 points in three of their last five games. Look for Milwaukee to try to attack the paint with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton. If they can’t, they’ll keep losing.
